What is the 4% Rule in early retirement planning?

Originating from the 1998 Trinity Study, the 4% Rule states that an investor withdrawing 4% of their initial portfolio value annually (adjusted for inflation) has a 95%+ historical probability of never running out of money across a 30-year horizon.

Coast FIRE is the milestone where you have accumulated enough invested capital today that, without contributing another cent, it will compound into your full target retirement nest egg by traditional retirement age (typically age 65).

FINANCIAL INDEPENDENCE, RETIRE EARLY (FIRE)

FIRE Retirement Freedom Simulator

Model your exact path to financial independence based on the 4% Safe Withdrawal Rule, compound interest curves, and lifestyle expenditure targets.

Your Financial Parameters

Current Age

Current Net Worth

Annual Take-Home Income$120,000

Target Annual Living Expenses$48,000

Calculated Annual Savings: $72,000/yr (60.0% savings rate)

Portfolio Assumptions

Nominal Return %S&P 500 avg ~ 8-10%

Safe Withdrawal (SWR)Trinity Study = 4.0%

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Target FIRE Number

$1,200,000

Supports $48,000/year forever at 4% SWR

Time to Freedom

11YearsRetire at Age 41

Portfolio Growth vs FIRE TargetTarget Line: $1,200,000

FIRE Milestones & Freedom Archetypes

Lean FIRE75% Expenses

$900,000

Minimalist, ultra-frugal freedom.

Coast FIREAge 65 Target

$192,613

Need zero additional savings to reach 65.

Fat FIRE150% Expenses

$1,800,000

Abundant luxury & frequent travel.

The Science of FIRE (Trinity Study & SWR)

What is the 4% Rule?

Originating from the renowned 1998 Trinity Study, the 4% Rule concludes that an investment portfolio split between 50% equities and 50% bonds had a 95%+ success rate of never depleting across historical 30-year retirement windows.

Why is Savings Rate more important than Income?

Your savings rate dictates both how fast you accumulate capital and how small your required annual living expenses are. Someone earning $70,000 saving 60% will retire substantially earlier than someone earning $250,000 saving only 10%.